The appearance of a weekly momentum divergence on Bitcoin charts suggests that the recent rally to nearly $80,000 may be the start of a sustained bull run rather than a temporary spike. This technical phenomenon, known as a bullish divergence, occurs when the price hits lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) makes higher lows, indicating that selling pressure is draining away. A similar signal appeared during the market bottom in late 2022, which preceded the significant recovery in early 2023, marking this as a rare and high-conviction indicator for long-term traders.
While the technical signal provided the foundation, several fundamental catalysts accelerated the move. The US Treasury recently announced it would double the maximum size of its long-end liquidity support buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. These operations, scheduled to run from September 9 through November 4, have already led to a drop in long-dated yields, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Political and regulatory developments have also played a crucial role in shifting market sentiment. Former President Trump’s recent meeting with crypto executives at the White House and the SEC’s publication of the Regulation Crypto Assets proposal have provided a sense of growing institutional and political legitimacy for the sector. Analysts note that these events landed just as the technical divergence was reaching a boiling point, providing the necessary catalyst for the price breakout.
For US investors, the focus now shifts to the sustainability of this momentum as the Treasury buyback program begins in earnest. The period between September and November will be critical for observing if the increased liquidity continues to support price discovery. Traders should watch for the weekly RSI to maintain its upward trajectory, as a break in this momentum could signal that the initial 'bullish divergence' catalyst has run its course.